December 14, 2018

Profit Taking Eats At Crude Oil Gains

13 January 2018, 12:32 | Joann Bryant

Global Look Press

The world’s most expensive oil

The 10 million-bpd milestone previously had not been expected to be reached until the fourth quarter.

Production from the Permian is expected to be 3.6 million bpd by the end of 2019, an increase of roughly 900,000 bpd from December 2017, and 32 percent of US crude oil production in 2019. That has changed in the last several years due to the shale revolution, but these projections surpass earlier expectations. At the same time, Venezuela's economic and political crisis continued to wreak havoc on its production capacity, with production falling to levels not seen since 2002. OPEC, along with non-members including Russian Federation, have extended through the end of this year a deal to cut supply by 1.8 million bpd.

In its previous forecast, issued a month ago, the EIA saw production growth of 780,000 b/d in 2018.

USA output will continue to rise in 2019, surpassing 11 million bpd by the end of that year, the EIA report said.

US crude production is forecast to average 10.3 million bpd in 2018, which would be the highest annual average USA production, surpassing a previous record of 9.6 million bpd in 1970.

"The major risk factors would be more global in nature, rather than anything specific domestically", EIA acting administrator John Conti said on a conference call.

"This year's rapid rise in oil prices, which hit $70 this week, is backed by strong demand growth and a fall in oversupply on the back of the OPEC and non-OPEC pact, not only by political tensions, Mazroui said".

Some 800,000 bpd of the projected 1.2 million US increase from December 2017 to December 2019 is expected to come from tight rock formations in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico, the agency said.

-While anti-government protests in Iran and the possibility of USA imposing sanctions again on the country has helped the ongoing crude rally to three-year highs, analysts are cautious as further moves are likely to depend on whether US shale production picks up because of the higher prices.

The market was supported by OPEC-led production cuts and expectations that US crude inventories have dropped for an eighth week.

Unlike, OPEC and its allies, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts oil prices to average $55/b bl in 2018 as 'c rude oil production from the United States is expected to increase more than in any other country.' However, narrowing U.S. inventories paired with the recent slowdown in field production may keep oil prices afloat especially as the bullish momentum appears to be gathering pace. While this spike in demand is an opportunity for US producers, it comes at a cost to consumers in the region. In both 2018 and 2019, EIA expects total global production to be slightly greater than global consumption, with USA production increasing faster than production in any other country, contributing to modestinventory builds. Demand is expected to climb an additional 340,000 bpd in 2019 to 20.65 million bpd, the agency said.

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