December 14, 2018

US Oil Prices Pull Back Some in Asia

13 January 2018, 02:42 | Joann Bryant

US Oil Prices Pull Back Some in Asia

US oil output to top record 11 million barrels per day by end of 2019: EIA

The EIA said USA crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels a day in 2017 and is estimated to have averaged 9.9 million b/d in December.

Despite the rising production, oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with USA crude touching its highest since December 2014, closing at $62.96 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at US$69.20 a barrel, up 38 cents. Earlier in the session, prices hit US$63.67, their highest since December 9, 2014.

In a short-term market report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects total U.S. crude oil production to increase by nearly 1 million barrels per day this year and easily break all-time records with an expected average output above 10 million barrels per day.

As of December, Venezuela's crude oil production was roughly 1.8 MMBPD, the lowest level since February 2003, when most of Venezuela's oil production was shut-in during an oil workers' strike, Kallanish Energy learns.

The EIA revised its production growth forecast for 2018 sharply higher to 970,000 bpd from 780,000 bpd in its previous outlook.

A survey of analysts by commodity pricing group S&P Global Platts revealed expectations of a 3.5 million barrel draw on crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's leading economy.

US Oil Prices Pull Back Some in Asia
US Oil Prices Pull Back Some in Asia

The price of Brent crude oil topped $70 per barrel briefly January 11 for the first time in more than three years.

At the time, political opposition to then-president Hugo Chavez organized the industrial action to force a new presidential election, resulting in the shuttering of all but 0.6 MMBPD of crude oil production.

Singapore average refinery profit margins have fallen below $6 per barrel this month, their lowest seasonal level in five years.

The IEA warned that mostly due to US shale, total supply growth could exceed demand growth. In 2019, crude oil production is forecast to rise to an average of 10.8 million b/d. EIA expects consumption growth will average 1.7 million b/d in 2018 and 1.6 million b/d in 2019, driven by the countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grew by 1.4 million b/d in 2017, reaching an average of 98.4 million b/d for the year.

Some 800,000 bpd of the projected 1.2 million USA increase from December 2017 to December 2019 is expected to come from tight rock formations in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico, the agency said. "Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 2.6 Bcf/d in 2019".

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