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IMD forecasts 97% normal monsoon for 2018
16 April 2018, 05:24 | Anna Jefferson
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Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 56% probability that rains will be normal to excess, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first stage long range forecast.
As quoted by news agency PTI, IMD director DG K G Ramesh said that there is very less probability' of the deficient monsoon.
According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2018 is likely to be normal at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal". The IMD considers the Monsoon to be normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.
Monsoon is regarded as "normal" if the average rainfall can be between 96-104 percent of the LPA. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA.
The IMD, which released its initial forecast for the four-month monsoon season, also said preliminary indications showed this year's rains would evenly distributed.
This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%.
As regards Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon, which is the other important factor, he said, at present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and recent forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season and this has been factored into the overall forecast.
IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. He expressed hope that the Monsoon will be constant and not sporadic.
If the forecast holds true, 2018 will be third successive year of normal rains.
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