January 19, 2019

The Day the Iran Deal Died

16 May 2018, 11:11 | Joann Bryant

GETTY MIDDLE EAST Iranians burn the US flag after Donald Trump axed the nuclear deal

Iranians burn flag

While he did not make a commitment to end imports of Iranian crude to avoid USA sanctions, he said Japan would "carefully analyze the impact" the US withdrawal would have.

What this means is that the U.S under Trump can withdraw from other agreements.

Crude surged past $71 for the first time since 2014 as American stockpiles shrank and the US told crude buyers to curb purchases from Iran.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 45 cents at $71.59. "The Treasury Department thanks the UAE for its close collaboration on this matter".

It follows a decision by US President Donald Trump to dump a nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstate "the highest level of economic sanctions" on Iranian oil, potentially pulling nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day from the global market.

Trump argued that the 2015 deal, which allowed for the lifting of sanctions, wasn't tough enough on Iran.

Iranian leaders have said they will begin enriching uranium again, in a move toward building nuclear weapons.

Several refiners in Asia said they were seeking alternatives to Iranian supplies.

Donald Trump
GETTY DONALD TRUMP The US President axed the Iran deal sparking fury in the Middle East

The global oil market is balanced, with top exporter Saudi Arabia and No.1 producer Russian Federation having led efforts to curb oil supply to prop up prices. US output is creeping closer to that of top producer Russian Federation, which pumps about 11 million bpd.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia was willing to see oil prices tumble during a supply glut partly, diplomats said, because cheaper oil cut the income of arch-rival Iran, limiting Tehran's capacity to finance proxy wars against Saudi interests in the region. For the very first time, "Iran recently awarded an upstream oil project to a Russian company".

Previously, Donald Trump called the US-Iran nuclear deal to be a "disaster".

One factor that could partially mitigate any shortfall from Iran is soaring USA oil output. That's because the USA will reimpose sanctions on Iran's economy and its oil exports.

"We expect that around October Iranian exports will be down by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and eventually fall by 1 million bpd", the bank said.

On a related note, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a news conference that her country had noted the United States decision with "regret and concern", saying, "We must not question the Iran deal, however, we also need to talk about a broader deal that goes beyond it".

French President Emmanuel Macron, who personally lobbied Trump to remain in the deal during a state visit to Washington last month, said: "France, Germany, and the United Kingdom regret the USA decision to leave the JCPOA". This would essentially end the OPEC-led deal to trim production.

During the first round of sanctions when European Union joined the USA in imposing financial restrictions, India initially used a Turkish bank to pay Iran for the oil it bought but beginning February 2013 paid almost half of the oil import bill in rupees while keeping the remainder pending opening of payment routes.

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