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profishingrods.com October 17, 2018


International Monetary Fund lowers SA's economic growth forecasts

09 October 2018, 06:30 | Joann Bryant

IMF downgrades global growth outlook, places responsibility on US-China trade tensions

IMF forecasts India's 2018 growth at 7.3 pc, praises GST, bankruptcy code

Beijing policymakers were navigating a "difficult trade-off between growth and stability", the International Monetary Fund said in a statement.

Pakistan says it will seek a bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address a mounting balance of payments crisis, Finance Minister Asad Umar said Monday.

"We have not been formally approached yet", said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's top economist, during the fund's annual meeting in Bali Tuesday. "Any sharp reversal for emerging markets would pose a significant threat to advanced economies".

The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.4% this year - down from April's prediction of 1.6% - while predicted growth for 2019 remains at 1.5%, a slowdown from 1.7% in 2017.

The growth rate of United States for 2018 is 2.9 per cent and that of 2019 has been powered to 2.5 per cent.

On Sunday Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan hinted at approaching the IMF, saying: "We may approach the IMF for support to the country's financial problems", but he insisted on looking toward other countries: "We have requested three countries to deposit funds in the State Bank of Pakistan that would boost the country's foreign exchange reserves".

Some energy-rich emerging market countries have fared better due to higher oil prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation seeing forecast upgrades. The IMF projections don't take into account Trump's threat to expand the tariffs to effectively all of the more than $500 billion in goods the USA bought from China previous year.

Trade tensions are expected to continue although Fund officials view U.S. -Mexico-Canada trade agreement as a positive sign.




Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF Economic Counsellor, warned against the rising tide of protectionism, saying that without multilateralism "the world will be a poorer and more risky place".

"Where we are now is we've gotten some bad news".

Speaking in Bali, Obstfeld said the country needed substantial improvements to its infrastructure and China could help in this regard, but "the design of the projects, and the governance of the projects must be sound" to avoid excessive debt or financial instability.

Among major US trading partners, Japan and the European Union have won exemptions from the planned USA auto tariffs while respective trade negotiations with Washington are underway.

The model also includes the effects of a reduction in business confidence that reduces investment and leads to a tightening of financial conditions. For next year, trade is seen growing just four percent, a half point less than the prior forecast.

China was set to grow by 6.2 in 2019, down from the 6.4 percent projected last July.

USA stimulus also adds to the "already-unsustainable" debt and deficit that will undercut future growth, the report warned. It also assumes that Trump imposes a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and auto parts.



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