April 24, 2019

Indian economy to benefit from China-US trade war, says UNCTAD report

06 February 2019, 06:07 | Joann Bryant

President Trump meets with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Jan. 31

President Trump meets with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Jan. 31

The world's two largest economies have 24 days left in a three-month truce in their trade war before U.S. duty rates are due to rise sharply - an escalation that economists say could be a powerful negative shock to the global economy.

"We are also very focused on free and fair trade for USA companies to have access there and to having a more level playing field which will bring down the trade deficit", Mnuchin said.

The tech industry has been closely tracking the escalating tariffs imposed by the US and China on one another.

The report said Asian countries are likely to suffer most from protectionism.

In a bid to meet the US' demand of bringing down the United States dollars 375 billion bilateral trade deficit, China has pledged to take measures to step-up American imports and investments. The 10 percent tariffs are set to climb to 25 percent unless there is significant headway on a trade deal by March 1. "We are now making it clear to China that after years of targeting our industries and stealing our intellectual properties, the theft of American jobs and wealth has come to an end", he said.

Also, UN research released yesterday argued that while Asian supply chains are likely to suffer from the tariffs, U.S. firms won't see much benefit.

The Chinese side agreed last week at a meeting with representatives of the United States in Washington to include issues related to hacker attacks on U.S. companies in the list of topics for discussion at the trade negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported citing a source at the USA presidential administration.

"Countries that are expected to benefit the most from US-China tensions are those which are more competitive and have the economic capacity to replace US and Chinese firms", the UNCTAD said.

But the effects of the trade war won't be negative for all regions.

The study also underlines the "common concern" that trade disputes have an unavoidable impact on the "still fragile" global economy, particularly on developing, commodity-rich countries that are dependent on exports.

Other countries set to benefit from the trade tensions - which erupted in early 2018, when China and the U.S. imposed tariffs worth around $50 billion on each other's goods - include Australia, with 4.6 per cent export gains, Brazil (3.8) India (3.5), Philippines (3.2) and Viet Nam (5).

Unless the United States and Chinese agree to drop their tariff dispute by 1 March, duty on each country's products will rise to 25 per cent, up from the current 10 per cent level.

The study found that European exports will grow by $70bn, while Japan, Canada and Mexico will see exports increase by more than $20bn each.

The higher cost of U.S. What comes of any deal will depend on the political will of future presidents to use the same tariffs Trump has employed to enforce it, the official said.

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